It's Out Of My Hands

Well, I worked the phones for a couple hours for the Romney campaign on Saturday, and this morning I was voter #4 in my precinct, so I've done just about all I can on my end here in Michigan. The rest is up to the remaining electorate – in whom I don't hold a lot of faith. I mean, they keep electing people in favor of more taxes in a depressed economy. Detroit City Council is a circus. The Michigan legislature is the embodiment of malaise. Not the most enlightened voters I've seen.

Will these people break from tradition and nominate a non-lame-o? We'll know tonight!

Romney Leads in Michigan

I spend a couple hours at the Mitt Romney phone bank yesterday, urging people to "get out the vote" (I've always hated the grammar of that statement). It was a new experience for me, and it was completely boring. The outbound telephone research I did while in college was more fascinating. Nevertheless, I must have made an impact, because the latest polls show Romney ahead of McCain in Michigan by five points.

The polling on the Republican side has been very accurate over the course of the primaries. Let's hope it holds!

Rush on Romney

Rush had an interesting answer today for the people who care to declare somebody (in this case, Mitt Romney) "finished" this early in the primary process.

Romney, by the way, you want to hear the delegate count after two states? On the Republican side, Mitt Romney, 24 delegates because he won Wyoming, which has as many delegates as New Hampshire. In number two the delegate race is Huckabee at 18, and number three is McCain, at ten, McCain, because of the margin of his victory in New Hampshire. So Romney, after three states, leads in delegates. Now, I know this is all going to change, but you can't come up and say, "Well, if he loses New Hampshire, he's out. If he loses Michigan, he's done." This is mindless! It's irresponsible! It's not even based in any kind of thought. It's just a bunch of individuals predicting things on one particular event after one particular event. This is not a momentum election, folks, this is important to understand. This is not a momentum election, because nobody has any momentum right now. The momentum shifts, we've had two states, we've had two sets of winners in both states. Where's the momentum? It's impossible to say that there is any momentum.

So Romney has the most Republican delegates so far. Doesn't sound like a bad position. If he can take Michigan, or even get another strong second, it sounds like he won't be much worse off than any other candidate. Just wait for Florida. That's when I think we'll start seeing a trend worth basing predictions upon.

Wyoming - Romney's Consolation Prize

Even if he lost Iowa to Huckabee, Mitt Romney took the Wyoming caucuses, easily securing six of its eight convention delegates. It's a little momentum he can use going into New Hampshire this week.

Glenn Beck is Funny

Glenn on the Iowa event.

It Ain't Over Yet

Yes, yesterday's Iowa caucuses were disappointing to Romney supporters around the country. But he's not dead yet – not by a long shot. As Romney heads into his next battle, the CNN article points out that "Iowa is no New Hampshire."

In Iowa, entrance polls of caucus-goers showed that 3 out of every 5 Republicans were self-described born again or evangelical Christians. Huckabee beat Romney by better than 2-to-1 in this voting bloc. Among the rest of Iowa's Republican electorate, however, Huckabee finished a distant fourth behind Romney, McCain and Fred Thompson.

In New Hampshire, social conservatives are not as influential. This potentially opens the door for Romney to regain the upper hand or for McCain to repeat his 2000 victory.

It's comforting to remember that even with all the media hype surrounding the Iowa event, many victories there are merely flashes in the pan. To win nationally, Huckabee will have to do a lot more than win over the "self-described born again or evangelical Christians."

Meanwhile, I bet Mitt's more worried about McCain, who won the New Hampshire primaries last time around.

Regardless of how it turns out, it's strange to think that in about a month, in all likelihood we'll know who the nominees will be. Then the fun will really begin.

Happy New Year

A clean white slate for two thousand eight.