It Ain't Over Yet

Yes, yesterday's Iowa caucuses were disappointing to Romney supporters around the country. But he's not dead yet – not by a long shot. As Romney heads into his next battle, the CNN article points out that "Iowa is no New Hampshire."

In Iowa, entrance polls of caucus-goers showed that 3 out of every 5 Republicans were self-described born again or evangelical Christians. Huckabee beat Romney by better than 2-to-1 in this voting bloc. Among the rest of Iowa's Republican electorate, however, Huckabee finished a distant fourth behind Romney, McCain and Fred Thompson.

In New Hampshire, social conservatives are not as influential. This potentially opens the door for Romney to regain the upper hand or for McCain to repeat his 2000 victory.

It's comforting to remember that even with all the media hype surrounding the Iowa event, many victories there are merely flashes in the pan. To win nationally, Huckabee will have to do a lot more than win over the "self-described born again or evangelical Christians."

Meanwhile, I bet Mitt's more worried about McCain, who won the New Hampshire primaries last time around.

Regardless of how it turns out, it's strange to think that in about a month, in all likelihood we'll know who the nominees will be. Then the fun will really begin.

Ames Chooses Romney

The much ballyhooed Ames, Iowa straw poll, which is seen as a bellwether for the success of Republican presidential candidates, has given another solid and significant victory to Mitt Romney, who has maintained his upward momentum over the grueling past 12 months or so.

This result should narrow the field of Republican contenders significantly--particularly those who were hoping to slide into a close second place behind Romney and knock him off balance. In fact, Tommy Thompson had stated that he would drop out if he didn't achieve first or second place. I think others will probably follow suit. Bye bye.


Here are the results:

1. Gov. Mitt Romney with 4516 votes and 31%
2. Gov. Mike Huckabee with 2587 votes at 18.1%
3. Sen. Sam Brownback with 2192 votes and 15.3%
4. Tom Tancredo with 1961 votes, 13.7%.
5. Ron Paul with 1305 votes, and 9.1%
6. Tommy Thompson, 1,039 votes, 7.3%
7. Fred Thomson with 203 votes.
8. Rudy Giuliani with 183 votes.
9. Duncan Hunter with 174 votes.
10. John McCain with 101 votes.
11. John Cox with 41 votes.

Romney's Rise Continues

New Hampshire. Michigan. And now Iowa. Mitt Romney continues to gain ground and break into first place in the polls in key primary states. Iowa is his latest milestone as he edges out McCain. If he keeps this up, the primary elections will be a mere formality.

This from John Zogby:

It used to be conventional wisdom that the worst thing a leader could face was a knock on the door and a voice calling out ‘Mike Wallace here from 60 Minutes - I have a few questions.’ Perhaps Mitt Romney proved this past weekend that this conventional wisdom doesn’t always hold true. Overall, Romney’s surge makes this a true three–way battle on both sides of the aisle.

Miss this week's debate? See highlights from it on Mitt's website. (Scroll down for the YouTube clips.)

More Board the Romney Voyage to the White House

Just a quick post to note the appointment of two more prominent people aligning this weekend with Mitt Romney. First, former Iowa state Senate majority leader Stewart Iverson will be Romney's new presidential adviser in Iowa. Second, Bob Perry (who financed the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth during the 2004 campaign) has signed on to raise money for Romney in Texas.

He may not have the name recognition he needs, but Romney certainly has the support where it matters most this early in the campaign. On April 15th, all the campaigns will release their first-quarter finances. It will be interesting to see how he compares in that critical area.

UPDATE:
Add Senator Orrin Hatch to the list. Of course, as Orrin is a Mormon Republican, this comes as the most unsurprising endorsement so far. Nevertheless, Hatch has had some major power in the Senate as Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee. He actually ran for president himself in 2000, but made little headway.

Coincidentally, Orrin Hatch is my dad's cousin's wife's cousin. So there.